The national media’s sole interest in the Chicago mayoral situation seems to be: Wither Rahm?

But several analysts noted that his pragmatic political view — and his aggressive, hard-nosed style — earned him enemies along the way, particularly among liberal activists who blame him for White House compromises on policies like health care, the economy and immigration reform.

This has been going around a lot, but I’m not convinced it matters. The virulently anti-Emanuel contingent of liberal activists is small, mostly because it’s up for debate even within the liberal community how much Emanuel actually has to do with the administration’s perceived excessive centrism (personally, I think if it hadn’t been Rahm being centrist as Chief of Staff, it would have been someone else). He has name recognition and money, and as a Daley protege, I suspect that even if he doesn’t have a local base anymore, with the mayor’s blessing he could take care of that right quick.

If I absolutely had to bet on anyone right now, it would be Tom Dart (Mark Brown makes some good points about the runoff system, do read it. But in the context of what will be a simultaneously very short and very long few months, it’s early.