Josh Marshall:

“If [McCain] can’t win Virginia (final polls), which is closer but still less than likely according to the polls, he’s basically done.”

The Commonwealth (most thugged-out state motto in America: Sic Semper Tyrannis) starts reporting around 6 central time. In 2006 I found that the results came in fastest from the state’s board of elections site. I’ve got that address plugged into my new S-M-R-T PHONE so I can hopefully provide a vaguely informed perspective on the returns from a “real” Virginia native. If you want to get really deep in the weeds, the BoE has breakdowns from 2004 and 2000. Here’s what voting looks like in my home county of Botetourt, which Bush won with 69% of the vote in 2004 and 64% in 2000.

Update: Wikipedia might be easier on the eyes.

Update II: My hometown paper has a good map.

Update III: A Columbia U. prof took some FiveThirtyEight simulations and adds some mathematical weight to Josh Marshall’s speculation:

“If those states [Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky] go roughly as expected (meaning, say, an Obama win in Virginia and a close race in Indiana), we can conclude with almost literal 100 percent certainty that Obama will win the election.”

Update IV: Holy s**t: “Analysis: Turn-out in some black precincts could increase 40% [in Roanoke]” Dwayne Yancey, who’s been covering southwestern Virginia since I was a kid, writes (emphasis his):

“So the two lowest-voting black precincts are voting at the same rate as one of the most reliable (and Republican) white precincts. If those voting trends continue, Lincoln Terrace and Melrose would see their turn-out go up by about 40 percent. Or more.

Update V: Now this is smart: my hometown paper’s doing some hell of great information reporting on Virginia turnout. The nav takes a bit of getting used to, but start here at Matt Chittum’s datablog.