• AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

The legendary sportswriter Red Smith once summarized a Green Bay Packers 1-10-1 season this way: “The Packers underwhelmed ten opponents, overwhelmed one, and whelmed one.”

Three hometown favorites—President Obama, the Bears, and the Northwestern Wildcats—are whelming their opponents right now.

On the political betting site Intrade, Obama’s chance of reelection this morning is 49.8 percent. The statistician Nate Silver sliced and diced Obama’s odds in yesterday’s New York Times magazine. Silver runs the NYT’s political stats blog FiveThirtyEight. He called the presidential winner in 49 states out of 50 in 2008, and the winner in all 35 senate races. For his magazine story, Silver considered four scenarios Obama could face: running against Mitt Romney or Rick Perry, with the economy improving or stagnant. “Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50,” Silver wrote. (More on Silver’s article and Obama’s odds later today.)